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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie Duke
Bücher Kostenlos Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie Duke
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Pressestimmen
"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." -- Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." --Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." - Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." -- Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better "Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." --Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." -Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly“A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights.” - John Greathouse, Forbes
Über den Autor und weitere Mitwirkende
Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.
Alle Produktbeschreibungen
Produktinformation
Taschenbuch: 288 Seiten
Verlag: Portfolio; Auflage: Reprint (7. Mai 2019)
Sprache: Englisch
ISBN-10: 0735216371
ISBN-13: 978-0735216372
Größe und/oder Gewicht:
13,9 x 2 x 20,9 cm
Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung:
3.4 von 5 Sternen
5 Kundenrezensionen
Amazon Bestseller-Rang:
Nr. 8.742 in Fremdsprachige Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Fremdsprachige Bücher)
Die Autorin, eine ehemals professionelle Pokerspielerin, behandelt in ihrem Buch die Entscheidungsfindung. Entscheidungen werden oftmals mit Vorurteilen getroffen und an ihrem Ergebnis bewertet. Dies wird in dem Buch mit Beispielen illustriert und vertieft.Um dem zu entkommen, schlägt die Autorin Strategien vor, die auch erfolgreiche Pokerspieler anwenden. Es geht darum, Entscheidungen wie Wetten anzugehen und die Entscheidungsfindung selbst, nicht aber die Ergebnisse zu bewerten, da ein Ergebnis dem Zufall unterliegt.Das Buch ruft auf, unsere Denkweise bei der Entscheidungsfindung bewusst zu kontrollieren und die dabei vorherrschenden menschlichen Schwächen abzumildern. Die hierfür vorgestellten Techniken leitet die Autorin von ihren Erfahrungen als erfolgreiche Pokerspielerin ab.
Very worthwhile and well written. Opens up new perspectives. Recommended for anyone. Examples very memorable. Worth the purchase for sure.
The intro and the first chapter, setting up the general idea, actually felt very promising.Yes indeed - life is very much like poker, and not so much like chess.And the story about a pass play getting 3 versus a running play getting only 2 more plays is instructive. For expert fans of American Football, not the average armchair coach in front of his TV.And yes - the hard part is properly closing the feedback loop, where you either see the right lesson to be learnt, or you don't. Which makes you smarter, or not. And that is an issue not only poker players are facing.And here I was expecting some new, original ideas created from the friction between the poker universe and the real world. Or at least a fresh look from a poker player's "outside" perspective.Well... No. The book is starting to go downhill in the "Wanna Bet" chapter 2. That betting thing is not really a new concept outside the poker universe, and that fact is simply ignored.Yes - people are risk-averse. But they are also greedy, and it's the 21st century.They love to swipe left and right all the time. People are betting on relationships, on bitcoins, and in the voting booth.Salespeople do have limited presales and sales budgets, which they allocate to target customers using very sophisticated planning and management methodologies, as well as tools.Corporate finance guys are routinely assigning values to positions on balance sheets which carry uncertainty, like outstanding loans or mining rights or patents.Psychologists and sociologists have to learn a whole arsenal of methodologies from probability theory and statistics. That is the field the author is coming from.Today, even poker players can rely on new theories and tools to improve the feedback loop and learn the right lessons from their plays.There are tracker database tools, tools to analyse strategies range vs range instead of hand vs hand. The latest fashion are balanced "GTO" type strategies, analysed, confirmed and improved using "solvers".Every professional in just about any line of business is putting money and his job on the line, everyday, and is mitigating and managing risks all the time. There are tons of processes and tools to get a grip on all the "betting" that is going on.But the author still assumes that we are mostly not aware of all the betting going on.And ideas on how to get out of that trap are what the rest of the book is zig-zagging through.So... What else is new?
This book is totally surprising in how deep it has touched me psychologically and I am sure how it will change the course of my life.Annie Duke has delivered a phenominal book, that is based on the experience of a profi poker player.For me it is new information, I did not find in a book until now.I feel that the author wants to share her deep insights with humanity. Thank You for this book.
Langweilig, redundant, nicht lesenswert. Offensichtliches wird lang und breit ausgewälzt und begründet, als ob es sich um schwer zu begründende Tatsachen handeln würde.
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